Sheet002 – RESOURCE-BASED OIL PRODUCTION FORECAST

RESOURCE-BASED OIL PRODUCTION FORECAST
Conventional Oil – Base Case Scenario					CONVENTIONAL OIL				Mb/d
kb/d	2000	2005	2010	2020	BY REGION	2000	2005	2010	2020
Saudi Arabia	7524	10853	13933	10897	ME-GULF	18.3	25.8	31.0	24.4
FSU*	6671	5856	5141	3962	EURASIA	10.4	9.1	8.2	7.2
USA-48	3756	2828	2129	1206	L-AMERICA	7.8	6.3	5.2	3.6
Iran	3447	3371	3285	2657	AFRICA	6.6	6.1	5.0	3.4
China	3362	2688	2150	1375	EUROPE	6.2	4.4	3.1	1.5
Norway	3117	2166	1506	727	N-AMERICA	4.6	3.6	2.7	1.6
Iraq	3100	5332	6411	5044	EAST	3.6	3.2	2.5	1.5
Mexico	3078	2516	2056	1373	ME-OTHER	3.0	2.4	1.8	1.0
U.K.	2553	1807	1279	641	OTHER	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4
Nigeria	2068	1752	1466	1027	WORLD	61.0	61.3	59.8	44.5
Venezuela	2044	1844	1663	1352	Non-Swing	42.8	35.6	28.9	20.2
Abu Dhabi	1924	3099	3726	3014	Swing Share	30%	42%	52%	55%
Kuwait	1813	2714	3263	2548	Swing Countries = ME GULF region
Libya	1403	1661	1460	1128	NON-CONVENTIONAL HYDROCARBONS
Indonesia	1227	964	757	466	Oil				Mb/d
Oman	940	790	599	344	Heavy Oils	1.3	2.1	2.1	2.0
Colombia	866	642	476	159	Canada	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8
Canada	1050	832	659	414	Venezuela I	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.5
Algeria	804	882	771	590	Venezuela II	0.0	0.7	0.7	0.7
Angola	800	631	441	231	Other		0.1	0.1	0.1
Egypt	798	578	418	219	Deepwater	2.2	5.8	9.1	5.7
Argentina	745	501	337	152	G. Mexico	0.9	1.6	3.3	2.1
India	694	656	508	305	Brasil	0.2	1.2	2.9	1.0
Malaysia	686	515	387	218	W.Africa	1.2	3.0	2.9	2.3
Qatar	609	504	417	285	Other	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
Syria	501	356	254	128	Polar	1.0	0.8	0.6	0.5
N.Zone	482	389	352	289	Alaska	1.0	0.8	0.6	0.4
Australia	454	367	296	193	Other	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Yemen	426	398	234	89
Ecuador	390	312	249	159	Other	0.6	0.9	1.2	1.8
Brasil	386	301	234	278	Subtotal	5	10	13	10
Gabon	319	235	174	95	GAS & GAS LIQUIDS
Denmark	307	214	128	46	Gas (by value at 10Tcf = 1 Gboe)
Dubai	277	185	124	56	Gas	24	27	32	33
Caspian Off.	255	446	752	1755	Non-con gas	4	5	5	7
Congo	252	228	164	85	Subtotal	29	31	37	40
Vietnam	200	255	223	104	Gas Liquids
Brunei	146	121	101	72	Condensate/NGL	7	7	9	9
Romania	122	108	96	76	ALL HYDROCARBONS
Trinidad	119	94	74	46	Gas	29	31	37	40
Cameroon	115	77	51	23	Liquids	73	78	82	64
Italy	106	101	80	53	Total	101	110	119	104
Papua	105	103	67	29
Peru	100	87	75	56	BALANCE	with 1.8% annual growth in demand
Bahrain	93	58	36	14	Liquids Mb/d
Tunisia	79	63	50	31	Supply	73	78	82	64
Thailand	79	89	61	29	Demand @ 1.8%		78	85	101
Sharjah	74	68	51	28	Balance	0.0	0.4	-3.1	-37.1
Turkey	64	48	36	21
Netherlands	55	39	28	15
Germany	53	46	39	29	KEY
Pakistan	50	38	29	17	*FSU excludes offshore Caspian
France	29	22	17	10	OTHER = small, new and unforeseen
Bolivia	27	25	20	14	Heavy Oils = oil from coal, “shale, tarsands & oil <17.5 API
Hungary	23	19	16	11	Venezuela I = normal heavy oil
Austria	20	15	12	7	Venezuela II = 4 contracted extra-heavy oil projects
Chile	9	8	7	5	(Most “Other Heavy” included in Conventional due to
Albania	6	10	16	20	database limitations)
Philippines	1	63	81	35	ALL INPUT DATA UNRELIABLE