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Sheet002 – RESOURCE-BASED OIL PRODUCTION FORECAST

RESOURCE-BASED OIL PRODUCTION FORECAST
Conventional
Oil – Base Case Scenario
CONVENTIONAL OILMb/d
kb/d2000200520102020BY REGION2000200520102020
Saudi Arabia7524108531393310897ME-GULF18.325.831.024.4
FSU*6671585651413962EURASIA10.49.18.27.2
USA-483756282821291206L-AMERICA7.86.35.23.6
Iran3447337132852657AFRICA6.66.15.03.4
China3362268821501375EUROPE6.24.43.11.5
Norway311721661506727N-AMERICA4.63.62.71.6
Iraq3100533264115044EAST3.63.22.51.5
Mexico3078251620561373ME-OTHER3.02.41.81.0
U.K.255318071279641OTHER0.50.50.40.4
Nigeria2068175214661027WORLD61.061.359.844.5
Venezuela2044184416631352Non-Swing42.835.628.920.2
Abu Dhabi1924309937263014Swing Share30%42%52%55%
Kuwait1813271432632548Swing Countries = ME GULF region
Libya1403166114601128 NON-CONVENTIONAL HYDROCARBONS
Indonesia1227964757466OilMb/d
Oman940790599344Heavy Oils1.32.12.12.0
Colombia866642476159Canada0.70.70.70.8
Canada1050832659414Venezuela I0.70.60.60.5
Algeria804882771590Venezuela II0.00.70.70.7
Angola800631441231Other0.10.10.1
Egypt798578418219Deepwater2.25.89.15.7
Argentina745501337152G. Mexico0.91.63.32.1
India694656508305Brasil0.21.22.91.0
Malaysia686515387218W.Africa1.23.02.92.3
Qatar609504417285Other0.00.00.00.3
Syria501356254128Polar1.00.80.60.5
N.Zone482389352289Alaska1.00.80.60.4
Australia454367296193Other0.00.00.00.1
Yemen42639823489
Ecuador390312249159Other0.60.91.21.8
Brasil386301234278Subtotal5101310
Gabon31923517495GAS & GAS LIQUIDS
Denmark30721412846Gas (by value at 10Tcf =
1 Gboe)
Dubai27718512456Gas24273233
Caspian Off.2554467521755Non-con gas4557
Congo25222816485Subtotal29313740
Vietnam200255223104Gas Liquids
Brunei14612110172Condensate/NGL7799
Romania1221089676ALL HYDROCARBONS
Trinidad119947446Gas29313740
Cameroon115775123Liquids73788264
Italy1061018053Total101110119104
Papua1051036729
Peru100877556BALANCEwith
1.8% annual growth in demand
Bahrain93583614Liquids Mb/d
Tunisia79635031Supply73788264
Thailand79896129Demand @ 1.8%7885101
Sharjah74685128Balance0.00.4-3.1-37.1
Turkey64483621
Netherlands55392815
Germany53463929KEY
Pakistan50382917*FSU excludes offshore
Caspian
France29221710OTHER = small, new and unforeseen
Bolivia27252014Heavy
Oils = oil from coal, “shale, tarsands & oil <17.5 API
Hungary23191611Venezuela I = normal heavy oil
Austria2015127Venezuela II =
4 contracted extra-heavy oil projects
Chile9875(Most
“Other Heavy” included in Conventional due to
Albania6101620database limitations)
Philippines1638135ALL INPUT DATA UNRELIABLE