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Richard Feynman

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Sheet001 – World Conventional Oil Endowment

WORLDCONVENTIONAL OIL ENDOWMENT1999
Ref. dateend 1999Revised4/29/2000Gb (billion barrels)
PRODUCTIONRESERVESDISCOVEREDDisc.PeakPk/%Dep.DATES
Cum.ReportedMedianYET-TO-FINDinDisc/UltProdRateMid-Peak
kb/dProd.5yrWorldO&GJAdjustFactorProb.YET-TO-PRODUCEGiantsProdDep.Prod
Country1999GbTrendOil+/-(P50)ULTIMATELag
1Saudi Arabia745085.9-1%259.10261.000.000.80208.8294.715.3224.131085%611.7%28%1.2%20152009
2FSU*6848135.3-3%66.6457.00-24.832.374.0209.320.794.723047%242.0%59%2.5%19911988
3   3976165.2-4%22.0121.03-9.001.518.1183.26.824.819026%411.8%87%5.5%19701971
4Iraq265324.968%98.98112.50-1.740.8594.1119.115.9110.113550%811.8%18%0.9%20212009
5Iran346250.4-1%92.8789.70-1.260.7061.9112.37.769.612063%131.9%42%2.1%20061974
6Kuwait163329.0-2%92.3694.00-4.840.6053.582.52.556.08595%711.4%34%1.1%20132009
7Abu Dhabi168916.0-2%62.5092.20-6.090.7060.376.33.764.08070%451.7%20%1.0%20202009
8Venezuela208738.51%45.5072.60-45.001.027.666.18.936.57573%290.6%51%2.0%19981970
9Mexico293126.62%28.4028.400.000.822.749.35.728.45553%232.0%48%3.6%20002000
10China320224.91%33.5224.000.002.025.450.42.628.15343%412.3%47%4.0%20002000
11Libya133621.4-1%26.9029.50-2.020.8523.444.73.326.64862%92.6%45%1.8%20041970
12Nigeria196920.21%22.5022.50-1.721.0020.841.01.021.84221%122.1%48%3.2%20001979
13U.K.273517.01%5.155.150.002.613.430.40.614.03142%253.2%55%6.7%19971999
14Caspian2251.73%0.001.05.06.723.328.3300%203.0%6%0.3%20292030
15Norway296912.81%11.9010.790.001.415.127.91.116.22945%213.9%44%6.3%20002000
16Indonesia128818.52%8.644.98-1.452.58.84.10.79.52842%222.2%66%4.7%19901977
17Canada110017.6-1%5.584.93-0.401.67.224.81.28.42644%152.4%68%4.5%19881973
18Algeria76611.20%13.809.20-2.881.7511.122.32.713.82554%221.8%45%2.0%20031978
19N.Zone5006.03%4.655.00-1.352.007.313.30.78.01468%471.4%43%2.2%20051998
20Oman8956.01%16.365.28-0.331.36.412.40.67.01332%292.8%46%4.4%20012001
21Egypt8517.8-2%3.712.950.001.253.711.51.04.712.536%222.6%63%6.2%19941996
22Qatar6336.08%5.343.70-1.192.35.811.80.26.012.057%591.9%50%3.7%19991999
23Argentina8077.42%2.592.750.001.12.910.30.73.611.028%382.8%68%7.6%19921998
24India6614.90%3.034.840.001.15.310.20.86.111.027%282.5%44%3.8%20022002
25Colombia8255.19%2.602.58-0.302.04.69.60.95.410.539%93.0%48%5.2%20002000
26Malaysia7274.52%4.653.90-0.531.13.78.20.84.59.012%243.1%50%5.6%19991997
27Australia4745.0-1%1.772.90-0.171.33.48.40.64.09.029%262.3%56%4.2%19961990
28Angola7623.80%4.035.41-4.474.003.87.51.04.78.515%303.6%44%5.6%20012001
29Romania1255.6-2%0.891.44-0.051.01.47.00.51.97.521%1191.5%75%2.4%19731976
30Brasil4064.15%7.507.36-5.001.02.46.50.52.97.00%113.0%59%4.9%19951986
31Ecuador3722.8-1%2.592.12-0.561.93.05.80.33.36.1037%312.3%47%4.0%20002000
32Syria5373.2-2%2.302.50-1.041.52.25.40.62.86.0033%293.7%54%6.6%19981995
33Dubai3013.4-1%1.014.00-0.040.31.04.40.31.34.750%213.3%72%7.7%19901991
34Gabon3392.5-1%2.572.50-1.251.201.54.00.52.04.5040%113.0%56%5.9%19971996
35Brunei1512.80%1.021.35-0.511.61.34.10.11.54.2574%132.1%66%3.6%19871978
36Trinidad1243.1-1%0.600.610.001.00.63.670.330.934.0015%222.2%77%4.6%19801981
37Yemen4061.24%1.854.00-1.090.61.72.980.522.273.5014%255.1%35%6.1%20032003
38Peru1032.2-3%0.770.360.002.00.72.930.571.283.5014%1222.1%63%2.9%19871983
39Congo2401.27%1.701.51-0.090.801.12.360.641.783.0017%183.4%41%4.7%20022002
40Germany551.9-1%0.350.360.001.20.42.290.210.642.500%152.3%74%3.0%19771967
41Vietnam1900.51%2.000.60-0.204.01.62.100.401.992.5020%324.1%21%3.4%20072007
42Denmark2930.911%0.881.070.001.01.01.950.301.322.250%305.2%42%7.5%20012001
43Italy1010.80%0.610.62-0.041.50.91.660.141.011.800%212.4%44%3.5%20022002
44Tunisia831.1-1%0.290.31-0.031.750.51.600.150.631.7546%102.5%64%4.6%19911981
45Bahrain1021.1-1%n.a.0.150.001.00.151.270.230.381.5067%622.6%75%8.9%19851993
46Cameroon1250.964%0.660.40-0.52-4.000.501.450.050.541.500%104.4%64%7.8%19941986
47Turkey680.780%0.300.300.000.90.271.040.160.421.200%232.5%65%5.5%19921992
48Netherlands590.79-3%0.110.110.002.00.211.000.100.311.100%63.0%72%6.4%19891987
49Sharjah700.438%n.a1.50-0.180.30.400.820.180.571.000%252.5%43%4.3%20052005
50Papua1000.280%0.560.33-0.041.50.440.730.220.670.950%64.9%30%5.2%20031993
51Thailand750.299%0.390.30-0.031.80.470.760.140.610.900%233.9%32%4.3%20042004
52Austria210.760%0.090.090.001.20.100.860.040.140.9057%72.8%84%5.1%19701955
53France310.69-8%0.130.11-0.011.50.140.840.060.210.900%302.8%77%5.2%19861988
54Hungary240.68-6%0.050.110.000.50.050.730.170.220.900%131.9%75%3.8%19831977
55Albania60.53-8%0.180.17-0.041.30.160.690.110.270.800%583.7%66%0.7%19861986
56Pakistan520.40-1%0.210.21-0.061.30.200.600.150.350.750%93.7%54%5.2%19971992
57Bolivia280.390%0.150.13-0.032.00.200.590.110.310.700%82.5%55%3.2%19961974
58Philippines10.05-14%0.310.290.001.10.320.360.240.550.600%05.2%8%0.1%20112011
59Chile90.41-2%0.080.15-0.010.50.070.480.070.140.550%222.7%75%2.3%19811982
REGIONS
1ME Gulf173872122.7%610.5654.4-15.30.8485.96984653274470%601.5%29%1.2%20152008
2Eurasia10430167-1.1%101.382.7-35.92.3106.02734915532241%361.2%52%2.4%19972000
3N.America5076183-2.5%27.626.0-9.41.525.320883321628%421.8%85%5.5%19721972
4L.America7692915.0%90.9117.0-50.91.064.7155188317355%211.7%52%3.4%19981998
5Africa6471702.3%76.274.3-13.01.166.3136107714742%181.7%48%3.0%20001979
6W.Europe6263366.6%19.218.30.01.731.3673346938%243.2%51%6.3%19981998
7East3719371.3%22.619.7-3.01.525.6634306733%302.1%56%4.4%19961997
8ME.Other3010223.9%16.421.4-3.91.018.0403214334%352.6%52%4.9%19981998
9Other36544.5%0.02.41.11.24.28048
10Unforeseen101010
Non-Swing430255941.6%354362-1151.38341935121462105633%371.5%56%3.4%19941997
WORLD604118221.9%9651016-1300.938271649151978180048%401.2%46%2.2%20032005
OTHER LIQUID HYDROCARBONS(tentative
and uncertain)
“Heavy” etc20001644(currently deemed producible)2030
Polar105014619611251988
Deepwater1200225275883852012
NGL/condensate430050160210402002502033
Unidentified20399101961625
subtotal10589902452751103103852013
TOTAL7100091210721924261128921852010
Conventional oil exludes NGL; condensate; oil
from coal and “shale”; bitumen; Extra-Heavy oil; Heavy oil
(10-17.5API); polar oil; deepwater oil (>500m WD) enhanced recovery
(revisiting an old field)  N-America is US-48 and Canada; Eurasia is
China, FSU, & E. Europe; Europe is Norway to Italy; ME-Gulf is Abu Dhabi,
Iran, Iraq,Kuwait, NZ and Saudi Arabia;
Unforeseen is unforeseen discovery or reserve
revision anywhere; Other is small or non-producing; Non-Swing is World ex ME
Gulf. “Adjust” removes non-conventional and cum. prod. of
periods
of unchanged O&GJ reports. “Factor” converts reported Proved to
Median Probability.
ALL
ESTIMATES SUBJECT TO MODIFICATION BASED ON NEW INFORMATION AND INTERPRETATION
OF UNRELIABLE INPUT DATA